It was eight weeks prior when the young forward found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed as the Villa manager admonished him for not reading a penetrating pass. At that point, as Villa failed to win in six, the question was whether his displays were a sign or the source of Villa's wider issues.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
On Sunday, however, the manager's outburst proved to be far more favourable. After Rogers swept in his second to restore the lead for Villa, Emery tore off his jacket, opened his arms and roared. The Birmingham club marched on to ten wins in a row and despite not winning any of their first six fixtures, now sit just three points behind the leaders Arsenal.
Is This Team Genuine Challengers?
That’s a particularly tough question to answer. History, a general sense of this institution, suggests not. Furthermore, their performances haven't been entirely convincing in many games, while the victories have stacked up.
According to the data, on just two occasions have Villa had an expected goals figure notably superior than the opposition. For a team who have put together ten consecutive victories, Villa seem weirdly vulnerable – however currently the tight outcomes are swinging for them.
The Winning Formula
The prevailing tactic appears to be to engage in a shootout with an opponent and then rely on Rogers to save the day with a couple of crisp finishes. This was the case at Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and once more against Manchester United.
The initial strike originated from a brilliant finish, arced precisely inside the upright from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal acted as a slight scruffier version of goal number one capitalizing on a pass from Watkins.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Logic says not. Against United, the opposition managed more efforts and more shots on target. The team has won each of their last eight by just one goal. They have allowed goals in nearly all of those games.
Regression to the mean could be the greatest opponent Villa must confront as the season progresses. Their key man, almost certainly, cannot maintain thrashing his shots into the net's top corner indefinitely.
A Case for Belief
Maybe there exists a different scenario in which, instead of results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs may yet return to peak condition.
- The main striker may begin to adding to his goal tally.
- The attacking talent could transform into the player he was in Germany.
- The injured centre-backs are due to return from injury, strengthening a sometimes shaky backline.
Maybe within that lies the seeds of a genuine bid, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on one man.
Relishing the Unlikely
But then, nobody expected this. Nobody thought the team would sit third at Christmas. And certainly earlier this season, few could imagine Rogers now would be spearheading a title charge while looking like an essential player for the national team.
This winning streak must be cherished exactly since it seems so surreal. When the match-winner stood in front of the home supporters at the final whistle conducting the cheers, it was clear to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. These runs of form do not happen often and must be appreciated.
